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雅虎財經:加息買銀行股

另類之選還有大新金融,此股有點像國浩集團,大股東擅長捕捉做刁機會。近期代表作是高價出售大新人壽兼派6.6元特別息,現時該行持有的重慶銀行股份及大新銀行,均具備出售價值,難怪每隔一段時日市場便炒作此股的重組概念。始終純本地銀行股已買少見少,不過投資者憧憬大新銀行賣盤已拉鋸了五、六年,入手此股雖然風險有限,但就要有穩守一段長時間的心理準備了。

連結

Fed ‘Stress Tests’ Clear All Banks to Issue Payouts to Shareholders

Wednesday’s results mark the first time since the annual tests began in 2011 that all firms passed. That reflects a turning point and could herald a return to precrisis days when banks were reliable dividend payers and shareholders flocked to them.

On average, the companies requested payouts that are near 100% of their expected earnings over the next year, up from 65% last year, senior Fed officials said.

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許文昌:大新金融應增派10元特別股息


大新金融(0440)6月19日公布,向深圳上市的泰禾集團出售香港和壽險業務並已獲支付80.3億元,並擬於6月29日董事會討論派發每股6.6元特別股息,鑑於派發有關特息之後集團資金依然過剩,且集團估值折讓仍然存在,我們促請大新董事會增派或稍後再次派發特別股息,並呼籲各股東積極表態。

正如筆者早前所指,泰禾最終匯款到港所以審批人壽出售交易只是時間問題,最終在6月中旬宣布完成交收香港大新人壽部份,而出售規模遠較小的澳門相關保險業務的交易則仍在進行中,不過參照早前泰禾簽約協議的新聞稿,預計不久後經澳門當局審批完成,而大新銀行副主席王祖興出席是次簽約儀式。

根據大新金融公告,出售香港業務扣除開支所得款項淨額約79.5億元,可獲得除稅前收益35億元,用途列明:1) 22億元派特息;2) 14.5億元擬用於增加一般保險業務的資本基礎:3) 約6-10億元擬認購大新銀行額外一級資本;4) 及餘下不少於 33 億元作一般資金或再投資其業務。 

正如筆者早已指出,大新金融出售人壽業務後並沒有保留大量資金的需要,足可派發20元以上特別股息,事實上今次資金安排正正突顯情況,近80億資金實際再投資於旗下最重要資產的大新銀行只涉區區6-10億元,33億元即每股9.85元竟為一般營運資金,若於今次派特息至少可增至每股16.45元。

大新金融保留14.5億元也有可議之處,若參考去年人壽出售通函,被出售的香港和澳門壽險資產淨值合共37億元,餘下的一般保險資產淨值僅為7億元,而且有關業務市場相對飽和、利潤和資金需求均低,現階段是否有需要大幅以其資產淨值兩倍增資成疑,當然另一方面看,增資也可提高未來併購價值。

德意志銀行已表示,大新金融成功出售人壽業務將舒緩交易可能失敗的風險,然而扣除特別股息,大新金融層面將繼續維持大量過剩現金資本,相當於每股9.85元或2016年下半年15%股本,長期而言將予投資者較高派息率的希望,維持大新系為本港銀行股首選,且估值在長期併購因素之下並不高。

摩根大通也表示,大新金融完成人壽交易將去除市場有關交易失敗的憂慮,短期有利氣氛,然而每股6.6元的特別股息低於該行預期的12元,只相當於63%的整體出售收益,故令大新金融更為資本過剩兼造成較不可取的基本股東回報率展望(低於目前預測30-50點子),但逾10厘股息率限制股價下行。

可見券商紛紛認同大新金融派發6.6元特別息之後資金依然過多,而自大新金融人壽完成交易,截至6月27日股價僅升5%,同期大新銀行也升1.4%,前者目前持有的74.6%大新銀行股權已相當於每股51.4元,現有的23.7元現金只反映一半,未計及剩餘業務和上市地位,仍存在至少一成半折讓。

而大新銀行截至2016年12月底止,整體資本充足率為18.3%,一級資本比率為12.7%,也於同年發行2.5億美元次級債,目前資本狀況已高於更大型的東亞銀行(23),何況其新的人壽分銷協議可為其未來15年帶來額外費用收入,加上流動資產狀況穩健,長遠而言提高資本管理能力才是要事。

Godahsing股東倡議活動一直致力提倡大新系釋放價值,並通過鼓勵對話和積極回饋讓股東和公眾人士了解大新系潛藏的可能,至今參與聯署的投資者逾250人,贊助款項逾23萬元,並計劃最終捐予各大慈善機構,而願意共同行動的大新系股份市值已遠超1億元,我們最初的倡議也獲得個別機構的認可。

我們一直主張大新金融應盡派特別股息,其次應考慮系內重組,包括實物分派大新銀行和重慶銀行(1963)股份,並中長期考慮併購。德銀近期指,大新金融派息雖然有助收窄大新系差價,但更多企業行動有助釋放更多價值——其中實物分派銀行,有助提高銀行成交、讓母子利益一致且剩餘的一般保險可以出售。

總括而言,我們並不滿意今次的特別股息金額,促請大新金融董事會應該額外增派至少每股9.85元的特別股息,筆者將以函件模式抄送文件予大新金融董事和東京三菱UFJ,也呼籲各界股東可通過傳真25985052、電話以至發信予已更名的集團註冊地址即光大中心36樓表達意見,期望更多的價值釋放。

*作者為Godahsing股東倡議活動發起人,並持有大新系財務權益。
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匯豐升大新金融目標價至76.1元

匯豐表示,由於大新金融(440)完成出售香港人壽業務且有清晰資金用途,將人壽和其他業務的折讓由三成收窄至5%,上調目標價9%至76.1元,當中大新銀行(2356)由每股相當於53.3元降至52.8元為1倍市賬率,而人壽和其他業務值23.3元,相當於19%上升空間,維持「買入」 。

匯豐稱,大新銀行(2356)旗下大新銀行將發行6-10億元的額外一級資本,料將推升一級資本充足比率0.5個分點,但會造成較高利息支出,故降其2017-19年盈利預測0-1%,維持「中性」,目標價微降10仙至16.9元,料核心銀行業務值1倍市賬率即13.6元,重慶銀行則值3.3元。

德銀:大新金融應研實物分派大新銀行並出售一般保險

德銀表示,大新金融(440)成功出售人壽業務將舒緩交易可能失敗的風險,然而扣除特別股息,大新金融層面將繼續維持大量過剩現金資本,相當於每股9.85元或2016年下半年15%股本,長期而言將予投資者較高派息率的希望,維持大新系為本港銀行股首選,且估值在長期併購因素之下並不高。

德銀稱,大新金融特息金額高於該行預期令私有化大新銀行(2356)可能性消失,而加強銀行資本或反映主要股東繼續經營銀行的意願,雖然特息有助收窄大新系差價,但更多企業行動有助釋放更多價值——其中就是實物分派銀行,有助提高銀行成交、讓母子利益一致且剩餘的一般保險可以潛在出售。


高盛維持大新金融中性評級 息率達12厘

高盛調整大新金融(440)2017年/18年/19年/20年度每股盈利+188%/-8%/-7%/-6%以反映出售人壽業務,該行維持其「中性」評級,目標價下調1.7%至57.4元,反映收入減少下的85%分類加總和15%併購價值,現以0.85倍賬面值交投,2017年息率達12%

摩通指大新金融特息遜預期,資本更為過盛

摩根大通表示,大新金融(440)完成出售人壽交易將去除市場有關交易失敗的憂慮,短期有利氣氛,然而每股6.6元的特別股息低於該行預期的12元,只相當於63%的整體出售收益,故令其更為資本過盛兼較不取為的基本股東回報率展望(低於目前預測30-50點子),但逾10厘股息率限制股價下行。

摩通又稱,新的人壽分銷協議優於大新銀行(2356)目前安排,而未來15年的固定費用相當於每年額外費用收入1.73億元,為2016年度經營溢利7.5%,且來自大新金融(440)的額外一級資本將提供更多業務擴展彈性,但對比同業關注其今年度其淨息差和基本盈利增長,維持兩者「中性」評級。

泰禾投資完成收購大新人壽壽險業務

有關澳門人壽的交易,以及與澳門商業銀行的銀保協議,預計不久後經澳門當局審批完成。簽約儀式已順利舉行。泰禾投資董事長黃其森及大新銀行副主席王祖興出席是次簽約儀式。泰禾宣布委任蔡惠儀為大新人壽行政總裁。

大新金融完成出售大新人壽 豪派特別息6.6元

大新金融(0440)去年公布,向深圳上市的內地綜合性投資集團泰禾出售香港及澳門壽險業務,包括本港的大新人壽、保險代理經紀大新保險服務、及澳門人壽等全部已發行股本。大新金融剛公布已完成出售本港保險業務的交易,並計劃派發6.6元的特別息。

大新金融指,公司已完成出售香港保險業務,大新人壽保險及大新保險服務已不再為公司之附屬公司。出售事項完成後,相關交易所得款項淨額約79.5億元,出售香港保險業務所得的約22億元擬用於派發特別股息。扣除交易成本及開支後,料公司可獲得除稅前收益35億元,而出售澳門保險業務的交易則仍在進行中。

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标普:予重庆银行(01963)“BBB-/A-3”评级 展望“稳定”

根据标普统计,重庆银行拥有稳定的市场份额,2016年占当地贷款市场份额的6%及存款市场份额的7%。虽然就全国范围来看该市场份额仍然较小,但其在标普2015年按总资产计中国前50大银行中排名第44位。

此外,在标普看来,受其承保偏好及资产质量的驱动,重庆银行的风险水平将与行业平均水平保持一致。

連結

請共同參與點算大新系持股

2016年4月創建大新系股東倡議活動Godahsing至今,已逾240名投資者聯署,捐款眾籌數目已逾16萬港元,為準備活動轉化至下一階段,正在點算參與投資者共同控制的大新金融(440)股份數目,數額非常驚人,願意共同行動的其他股東煩請告知:[email protected]

當然也同樣歡迎大新銀行(2356)的股東共同參與,畢竟活動涉及母子股份,然據Godahsing暫時掌握的股份數目,大新金融(440)持股遠遠較多,而且觀察股東周年大會投票紀錄,在未有組織之下,大新金融竟有兩成一涉5700萬股投票不支持一般性配股議案,相當於總股本一成七,值得留意。

Boardroom Changes in Dah Sing Group Set to Trigger Re-rating


by Man-cheong HUI (translated by KK CHAN and Patrick LEE)

Alongside the rally of other local banking shares, share prices of the Dah Sing Group’s listed companies  have recently edged upward, moving a bit closer to its 52-week-high price seen earlier.
As the founder and activist of Godahsing.com, the website advocating actions beneficial to the Group’s shareholders, I lately attended the Group’s annual general meeting (“AGM”), specifically taking advantage of the opportunity to raise questions, as well as making suggestions to the Group’s top management.

Given the recent changes in the directorships of Dah Sing Banking (2356), although not much publicized, I’m convinced that the time is ripe for a significant upward re-rating, in the valuation of the Dah Sing Group of companies as a whole.

Relative to how the Heng Sang Index movement has demonstrated this year, the Group’s share prices may have somewhat underperformed thus far. But now it looks set to be improving all the time. That said,  I ‘m glad to have picked Dah Sing Financial (0440), and its subsidiary Dah Sing Banking, as two of my top picks for the Year.

Here’s why.

Late May saw Dah Sing Financial announcing a further extension of the “Dah Sing Life disposal” deal-closing deadline (originally set to be on June 2nd).  As disclosed, it was the delay in the forex remittance for the deal settlement, that Thaihot Investment, the purchaser, is supposed to come up with way beforehand, that has inevitably caused the extension. It eventually took as lengthy as nine months to complete the remittance. Hence the relevant approval so deferred.

In addition, the transitional change in the oversight authority, from Office of the Commissioner of Insurance, the government agency in charge, to Independent Insurance Authority that took place as recently as June, has also aggravated the matter.

Lest we forget, however, such deadline extension is not unexpected by the marketplace. Not to mention that the resulting extension still falls within the 15-month maximum period stipulated, thereby not requiring the another negotiation of, say, a brand new deadline. In essence, the completion of the deal looks set to be just around the corner.

The Dah Sing Group AGM was held on 26th of May.  I attended it and came to realize that, Mr. David Shou-Yeh Wong, Chairman of the Group’s Board of Directors, as opposed to his former behavior as a frequent attendee, ended up absent this time.

Knowing that the “Dah Sing Life disposal” deal has yet to complete, I chose not to read out any well-prepared open letter on the spot. Instead, I reiterated Godahsing.com’s stand point, raising appropriate questions about the deal, and demanding, as before, the management to be committed to delivering a one-time, special cash-dividend distribution.  Mr. Harold Tsu-Hing Wong, then executive director of Dah Sing Banking and son of Mr. David Shou-Yeh Wong, replied that both parties remained confident in the forward-looking deal completion.

In fact, media of late reported that the purchaser Thaihot Investment had already remitted the money from China. My reliable sources also hinted the same, that the money is at hand.  All it matters now is, the deal is due to complete, pending the official approval from the said authority-in-charge.  Likewise, special cash-dividend distribution announcement is anticipated to materialize shortly thereafter.  The focus of the matter should then be shifted toward, as to how the eventual Dah Sing Group restructure is going to turn out to, as well as on how it aims to handle their non-core assets, including Dah Sing Banking’s associate, Bank of Chongqing (1963), a mainland China bank, the escalating risk exposure of which is increasingly seen.

Prior to this, I’ve repeatedly pointed out, that the Group’s holding of the shares in Bank of Chongqing is nothing but one of the negative factors, that stands to drag down the entire share valuation in the Dah Sing Group as a whole.

A case in point is as follows.  Recently Wheelock (0020) and The Wharf (0004) announced to return to shareholders, all of the proceeds from the sale of i-Cable Communications (1097), in the manner of two-time distribution of dividend in specie. Such an example has established a precedent, for which I’ve hitherto advocated. That is to say, disposing of Bank of Chongqing by the Group in a similar manner to the aforesaid, is likely to be a wise solution to the price-dragging problem so caused. As a result, I brought this up during the AGM.  Mr. Gary Pak-Ling Wang, an executive director of Dah Sing Group, responded in greater detail and is worth mentioning.  He emphasized that Bank of Chongqing is a long-term investment, and as such, no plans of its disposal and relevant returns of similar proceed in terms of dividend in specie, has been contemplated.

I noted that the top management of Dah Sing Group, as a rule of thumb, has been as prudent as it can be.  Yet, acting for and on behalf of the stand points of as many as 230 investors in the matter, I reiterated our expectation of a one-time distribution of as few as $20.00 special cash-dividend, from Dah Sing Financial alone, and also our continuous demand for the need to minimize the Group’s risk exposure, specifically in the mainland China market.

I was, to a certain extent, satisfied with their responses.  After the meeting, however, I was surprised to find out, that as much as 21% of the Dah Sing Financial’s shareholders, although not acting on a concerted effort, had voted against the Group’s general resolution on the allotment issue.  Not to mention, that the late announcement of the changes of board directorships that came to light right after the meeting, was, itself, a much bigger surprise.

Noteworthy, Dah Sing Financial, the parent company, disclosed after the meeting, that Mr. Nicholas John Mayhew, executive director and head of the subsidiary Dah Sing Bank’s treasury and corporate finance departments, was to be transferred to the listed Dah Sing Banking, to be assuming the positions of executive director and deputy chief executive therein.  Besides, executive director Mr. Gary Pak-Ling Wang is to be appointed deputy chief executive of Dah Sing Bank, and will assume the responsibilities as the group chief financial and operating officer.  In short, from 1st of June onwards, there will be one executive director less than before, probably a downsizing effort in the anticipation of the sale of Dah Sing Life due to complete soon enough. As matters now stand, there will be three executive directors in the 10-member board.  The bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ will still have two non-executive directorships.

More importantly, in the listed subsidiary, Dah Sing Banking, Mr. Derek Hon-Hing Wong, vice chairman and executive director, will assume the responsibilities of managing director and chief executive as well.   As I pointed out earlier, Mr. Gary Pak-Ling Wang, an executive director in charge of financial matters, will also act as chief financial and operating officer. There will still be four executive directors.

Yet there are more surprises.  Mr. Harold Tsu-Hing Wong, the heir apparent of the Wong family, will resign from the positions of managing director and chief executive of the listed Dah Sing Banking, and take over what Mr. Gary Pak-Ling Wang left behind, the positions of managing director and chief executive in Dah Sing Bank, the subsidiary.

The immediate market response was lukewarm.

It might have been because of the names of the listed Dah Sing Banking and Dah Sing Bank, the subsidiary, are almost identical, making it hard for investors to distinguish who from who, and therefore what the difference it could have made.  Given that Mr. Harold Tsu-Hing Wong, 47, has already been executive director and vice chairman of Dah Sing Bank for years, the new arrangement cannot be easily understood unless there are mistakes made.  Otherwise, such arrangement is meant to serve only as a preempt action, forewarning the marketplace that it will be him who is to leave the board of the listed company.  After all, as and when the 76-year-old chairman Mr. David Shou-Yeh Wong chooses to retire, there will be no more members of the Wong family on the boards of the two listed companies of the Dah Sing Group. Subtly the characteristics of the family business are set to be fading away soon.

In 1957 businessman Mr. Shih-sing Wong bought the stake in Dah Sing Bank, a bank founded as early as a decade ago, by Mr. Yuan-loong Yang, a friend from his home county. Later on, Wong became the majority shareholder.  The bank continued to expand under the leadership of three generations of Wongs, Mr. Shih-sing Wong himself, Mr. David Shou-Yeh Wong, his third son and the current chairman, and Mr. Harold Tsu-Hing Wong, the grandson. As an independent bank, Dah Sing Bank expanded to the current size almost single-handedly, an achievement that is praiseworthy.  However, compared with the banking peers in Hong Kong who is now enjoying backing from big financial groups, the Group’s status quo shall no longer be in the same league.  Currently, three executive directors have taken up identical positions in the two listed companies of the Dah Sing Group.  A strong indicator of a willingness to stay put.

Back in November 2012, Chong Hing Bank (1111), then not yet acquired by Yuexiu Enterprises of Guangzhou, announced that Mr. Lit-Chi Liu, son of the founding father, was to resign as chief executive officer, and Mr. Andrew Liu, the heir of the family in the third generation, was to step down from the management at the same time.  This news pushed the share price of the bank, jumping by more than 25%  in just two short days.  The bank finally changed hand in October 2013. Supported by the new China-owned parent group, the business of the bank expanded handsomely, with revenue doubled in just three years’ time.

In short, following closely the former footsteps of its peers is set to be a logical step for Dah Sing Group.   The boardroom changes, so far under-analyzed by the media, can be a trigger for re-rating in its share prices. Lately, Dah Sing Banking fast approached its 52-week high, reaching out for $16.00 and above. This way its tangible price-to-book value is equivalent to as high as 1 times, with its return on equity is now almost as much as 10%.

Having said that, I believe that the Group is undoubtedly a good candidate for restructuring, or a potential merge and acquisition target in the foreseeable future, given that this sizable bank of Hong Kong is still much undervalued.

At the same time, Dah Sing Financial is going to finish the Dah Sing Life deal, to be followed by a special dividend distribution.

 STRONG BUY.

*Man-cheong HUI is the founder of Godahsing.com. HUI has had holdings in the shares of the aforesaid companies.

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許文昌網台節目解釋大新系董事會變動

股海拾遺節目:連結

許文昌:大新系董事會變動足以催化估值


近期大新系跟隨一眾香港銀行股逼近高位,作為已經運作逾一年的股東活動倡議人,筆者早前出席股東周年大會並即席提問和建議之後,結合近來鮮被留意的大新銀行(2356)的董事變動,認為大新系估值已備大幅改善的條件,今年來略跑輸恒生指數的情況將不再,大新金融(440)母子無愧是我今年首選股。

大新金融5月下旬發出延長出售大新人壽最後截止日期的公告,因原定1年限期6月2日屆滿,源自泰禾匯款出境最終需時9個月以致延誤審批,加上獨立保險業監管局將6月接替香港保監處的職能,但今次延期料也在市場預期之內,且延盡原定最多15個月的限期而非簽新協議續期,應算是望見家鄉了。

5月26日大新系舉行股東周年大會,筆者出席大新金融會議,發現一向參與的大新系執行主席王守業今趟罕有缺席,由於出售人壽交易未完成,筆者也未有再宣讀公開信,只表明立場提問交易和要求管理層承諾作出一次性分派,王守業公子、當時的大新銀行執行董事王祖興回應雙方均對完成交收有信心。

查早前報載大新人壽的新買家泰禾已將資金匯出中國,據筆者所得的消息確認泰禾資金確已到賬,目前只待監管方面批准大新金融出售交易,即可完成交收並料短期可宣派特別股息。接下來焦點應該是大新系如何重組和處置非核心資產,包括大新銀行轄下風險日高的內銀重慶銀行(1963)。

筆者過去已多番表明重慶銀行是部份拖累大新系估值所在,鑑於會德豐(20)、九倉(4)近期宣布兩輪實物派清有線寬頻(1097),為筆者過去提議分派重慶銀行提供無需重組大新系內股權結構的先例,特意以此提醒,執董王伯凌也算詳盡回答,強調視重行為長線投資,暫未計劃實物分派。

大新系管理層一向相對審慎,畢竟筆者代表逾230名投資者重申期望大新金融稍後一次性派發20元特別股息和減少內地風險的立場應予正視,對他們的回應算是滿意。會後驚訝在未有組織之下,大新金融竟有兩成一投票股東不支持集團配股的一般性議案,但最意想不到是會後竟然這麼快出現董事人選變動。

母企大新金融在股東會後宣布,將原執董、旗下大新銀行財資處及企業融資部主管麥曉德調回上市的大新銀行集團擔任執董兼副行政總裁,現任執董王伯凌兼任副行政總裁及集團財務及營運總監,6月1日起執董變相減少一人,十席只佔其三,算是為出售人壽業務後精簡鋪路,東京三菱UFJ非執行董事仍佔兩席。

更關鍵的在於上市子企大新銀行集團,原副主席兼執董黃漢興一併任董事總經理兼行政總裁,一直負責財務的執董王伯凌兼任財務及營運總監,執董仍為四人,被視為接班人的原執董兼董事總經理兼行政總裁王祖興,竟然辭去上市集團職位以出任附屬大新銀行的董事總經理兼行政總裁,取代王伯凌舊職,令人意外。

市場反應不大,原因是上市的大新銀行集團和附屬大新銀行名字幾近一樣,不易分辨,但47歲的王祖興早在後者身任執董兼副主席,除非犯錯,否則這種變相降職之舉只是離開上市董事會的借口。經過今輪系內調職,一旦76歲的主席王守業宣布榮休,大新母子董事會已再無王氏家族成員,變相去除家族色彩。

富商王時新1957年入股同鄉楊元龍早十年創辦的大新銀行並成為大股東之後,獨立發展,其三子、現任主席王守業和祖興父子執掌壯大至今日規模,幾乎不靠外援,大是不易,值得讚許。然而對比紛紛背靠龐大金融集團的香港同業,大新已難以攀比。現時大新母子三名執董系內職位完全一致,看守姿態強烈。

2012年11月,當時尚未出售予廣州越秀集團的創興銀行(1111)董事會宣布變動,創辦人廖寶珊家族第二代廖烈智辭任行政總裁,第三代嫡孫廖駿倫同時退出管理,刺激創興銀行股價兩個交易日急升兩成半,2013年10月銀行終於易手,創興銀行其後透過新的中資母企進一步擴展,收入短短三年翻倍。

總而言之,大新系複製同業之路合情合理,市場忽視的董事會變動足以觸發大型估值上調。大新銀行近期股價高逾16元見52周新高,但現時僅相當於1倍有形賬面值,股東回報近一成,既屬可見將來重組甚被併購的具規模港銀,仍被低估,而大新金融又屆出售人壽隨時完成兼派特別股息之際,應予強烈買入。


*作者為Godahsing股東倡議活動發起人,並持有大新系財務權益。 ,

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